The Voter Constituency That Will Determine the US Election...
... is (drumroll): Make up your minds!

This descriptor has been applied to too many groups, making it overused and tired.  According to Kerry's former campaign manager, the Catholics will determine the outcome of the US presidential election.  Ergo, Biden is a good VP choice and an asset to the Democratic ticket.  If so, what happened to the disgruntled, white, working class voters?  Or, the Latino voters?  Or was it the women voters?  I didn't even mention "the Jews."

The dumbest suggestion of all was posted on janglo, Jerusalem's Craig's List.  A poster declared that expats in Israel would be the determining vote and he was urging readers to vote for McCain.  While the stateside groups named are plausibly the determining constituency, they are also mutually exclusive.  Pick one!  However, it is not possible for any expat group to have that kind of power in the current electoral voting system (if they are lucky enough to get their votes counted).  Israeli expats cannot "make a statement" like individual states can, b.c there is currently no mechanism to know how the expat populous in Israel or any other country votes.  I'm going to go out on a limb here and guess that my vote will not carry much influence in Maryland's vote.

(Although the Democratic Global Primary did introduce a change in the world of the Democratic primary.  As best I recall, Obama had a sweep throughout countries and Clinton won in Israel and the DR, only.)

Finally, I have mixed feelings about "Get Out the Vote" campaigns abroad.  Personally, I already applied for my absentee ballot.  I read the International Herald Tribune's US Election page (usually page 6) daily, read Washington Post Online, etc.  I feel like I'm an informed voter and my vote is legitimate.  I also think "get out the vote" and "rock the vote" initiatives are important for citizens living stateside.  However, this logic does not apply to American citizens who choose to live abroad.  Only those who remain active and engaged should be participating in a US election. 

To clarify, I think absentee ballots should be readily available for all who apply and absentee votes should certainly be counted.  I just don't think citizens living overseas should be courted as potential voters when they're not paying attention to the elections.